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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."